Rate cuts by year-end

  • Fed: 47 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • ECB: 19 bps (95% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoE: 48 bps (90% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • BoC: 24 bps (78% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBA: 74 bps (73% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
  • RBNZ: 27 bps (82% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
  • SNB: 45 bps (75% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

*for the SNB, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut

Rate hikes by year-end

  • BoJ: 17 bps (100% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

The surge in oil prices saw a bit of a hawkish repricing in interest rates expectations. The change is negligible and with the expected de-escalation, we should see a pullback in oil prices.

Source: Forex Live