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Oil Price Forecast: WTI eases as markets eye Israel-Iran conflict, hopes for de-escalation
WTI Oil prices are easing on Monday, retracing part of Friday’s nearly 6% surge after slipping from the key $70 level, now holding as resistance.
Oil
WTI
Energy
MiddleEast
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Iran wants to de-escalate hostilities with Israel – WSJ
The Wall Street Journal reported on Monday that Iran seeks talks with the United States (US) and Israel, and sends messages via Arab intermediaries to end hostilities, per Reuters.
Macroeconomics
MiddleEast
Israel
Politics
UnitedStates
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Iran signals it wants to de-escalate hostilities - report
WSJ report
Gold
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Iranian media reports explosiors near Tehran
Fresh strikes in Iran
Politics
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US stock futures climb as the market weighs Iran-Israel conflict
Fears from last week fade
SPX
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Canada cools hopes for a US trade deal ahead of the G7
Minister of Canada-US trade says progress hasn't been 'fast enough'
CAD
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USD/INR firms up above 86.00 after softer Empire State reading
The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, halting a two-day losing streak as the US Dollar Index (DXY) slips lower and fresh trade data boosts sentiment.
USDINR
India
Technical Analysis
Fundamental Analysis
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Israel PM Netanyahu: We are telling citizens of Tehran to evacuate
Israel's Prime Minister (PM) Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that the Israeli air force is in control of the skies over Tehran, per Reuters.
Macroeconomics
MiddleEast
Israel
Politics
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June US Empire Fed manufacturing survey -16.0 vs -5.5 expected
The New York-area manufacturing survey June 2025
USD
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USD/CNH: Likely to trade in a range between 7.1770 and 7.1970 – UOB Group
USD is likely to trade in a range between 7.1770 and 7.1970. In the longer run, USD has likely moved into a 7.1620/7.2200 range trading phase, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Banks
Technical Analysis
USDCNH
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USD/JPY can potentially test 145.00 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) could potentially test 145.00 against Japanese Yen (JPY); the major resistance at 145.50 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, USD is likely to trade in a range between 143.00 and 145.50, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
USDJPY
Technical Analysis
Banks
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Netanyahu urges residents of Tehran to evacuate
Netanyahu says objective is 'eliminating missile threat'
Oil
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Gold flirts with $3,400 as investors monitor geopolitical risks and US Dollar weakness
Gold is trading lower on Monday as a combination of profit-taking and geopolitical risks continues to drive prices.
Gold
XAUUSD
Commodities
Technical Analysis
Macroeconomics
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JPY soft and underperforming ahead of BoJ Tuesday – Scotiabank
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is soft against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming all of the G10 currencies in an environment of mild risk appetite, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
USDJPY
Banks
Japan
BOJ
Technical Analysis
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Canada May housing starts 279.5K vs 245K expected
Canadian May 2025 housing starts from the CMHC
CAD
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USD/JPY: BoJ is coming up next – OCBC
Geopolitical escalation in Middle East saw safe haven proxies, including JPY strengthening last Friday. USD/JPY was last at 144.12 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
USDJPY
Banks
Technical Analysis
BOJ
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GBP flat into high risk week – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is entering Monday’s NA session flat against the US Dollar (USD), a relative underperformer in an environment of modest risk appetite and mild USD weakness, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
GBPUSD
Banks
Technical Analysis
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OPEC leaves forecasts for global oil demand unchanged in 2025 and 2026
The latest monthly report from OPEC
Oil
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Copper prices are edging lower – ING
Copper edged lower after China’s new-home prices fell the most in seven months, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.
Metals
Commodities
Copper
Banks
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What is expected for the upcoming BoJ decision?
The central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and slow the reduction in its bond purchases
JPY
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ForexLive European FX news wrap: Markets look to move on from Iran, Israel tensions
Forex news from the European morning session on Jun 16, 2025
Session wrap
Wrap Europe
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EUR up modestly, with focus on ECB/Fed outlook – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is up 0.2% vs. the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10, extending its recovery from last week’s geopolitically-driven pullback, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
EURUSD
Banks
Technical Analysis
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NZD/USD surges to near 0.6040 as investors digest Middle East tensions
The NZD/USD pair is up 0.5% to near 0.6040 during European trading hours on Monday. The Kiwi pair strengthens as demand for riskier assets has increased, while tensions between Israel and Iran remain intact.
NZDUSD
Fed
RiskAppetite
MiddleEast
InterestRate
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CAD retains a firm undertone but ignores crude swings – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) retains a firm undertone against a generally softer US Dollar (USD). The CAD’s performance since the outbreak of Israel/Iran hostilities last week is fairly middling among the major currencies, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note.
USDCAD
Banks
Technical Analysis
Canada
BOC
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Gold rises toward a record high – ING
Gold is higher at the Monday open, getting closer to a fresh all-time high, with rising tensions in the Middle East fuelling haven demand, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.
Gold
Commodities
Banks
Metals
XAUUSD
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USD slips as risk sentiment improves – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is softer overall, crude oil is lower while the ILS is some 2% stronger and risk appetite is firmer at the start of what is likely to be a busy week for markets, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric T
DollarIndex
Banks
Technical Analysis
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Tehran ready to abandon enrichment but needs a face-saving exit - IranWire
Iranwire citing exclusive interview with a high-ranking Iranian diplomat
Oil
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USD: Dollar rebound has been lacklustre – ING
This was always meant to be a very busy week for markets, as a few key central bank meetings – including the Federal Reserve's – were set to refresh the market understanding of policymakers’ stance on the inflation-growth balance in the second month of global US protectionism.
Banks
DollarIndex
Technical Analysis
Oil
Fed
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Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD fails at $3,440 and approaches $3,400 support
Gold (XAU/USD) is correcting lower after rejection at the $3,440 resistance area on Friday.
XAUUSD
Gold
Metals
Commodities
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NZD/USD: Likely to trade in a range of 0.5970/0.6080 for now – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.6000 and 0.6050. In the longer run, upward pressure has faded; NZD is likely to trade in a range of 0.5970/0.6080 for now.
Banks
NZDUSD
Technical Analysis
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Energy: Oil in focus – ING
Oil extended gains on Monday morning as Israel-Iran attacks extended to a fourth day. On Saturday, Israel temporarily knocked out a natural gas processing facility linked to the South Pars field and targeted fuel storage tanks during strikes.
Oil
Banks
Energy
Commodities
OPEC
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US Dollar Index (DXY) retreats below 98.00, weighed by a brighter market mood
Friday’s US dollar recovery has been short-lived.
DollarIndex
Currencies
Fed
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DXY: Rangebound for now – OCBC
US Dollar (USD) remains a touch firmer amid geopolitical escalation between Israel and Iran. DXY was last at 97.93 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
DollarIndex
Banks
Technical Analysis
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USD/CHF consolidates near two-month lows with traders eyeing Fed-SNB cues
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is holding steady against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) slips back below 98.00, with traders brace for a relatively calm start to a week full of central bank decisions and the context of an escalating war between Israel and Iran..
USDCHF
Switzerland
SNB
InterestRate
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AUD/USD: Likely to trade sideways between 0.6430 and 0.6550 – UOB Group
Downward pressure appears to have eased; Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade sideways between 0.6460 and 0.6520. In the longer run, AUD appears to have moved into a range-trading phase between 0.6430 and 0.6550, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
AUDUSD
Technical Analysis
Banks
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USD/JPY gives back early gains ahead of BoJ-Fed monetary policy decision
The USD/JPY pair surrenders its early gains and flattens around 144.15 during European trading hours on Monday. The pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) falls back after failing to extend Friday’s recovery move.
USDJPY
Fed
BOJ
MiddleEast
InterestRate
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China: Consumption up, investment down – Standard Chartered
Retail sales growth accelerated to a 17-month high in May on front-loaded policy support. Better sentiment after US-China tariff truce supported steady export and IP growth.
China
Banks
Growth
Macroeconomics
RetailSales
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AUD/USD pares Friday’s losses and returns above 0.6500 as risk aversion ebbs
The Australian Dollar is one of the stronger performers on Monday, favoured by an improving market sentiment and a weaker US Dollar. The pair is rallying about 0.45% so far today, returning to levels past 0.6500 as fears about the Middle East conflict ease.
AUDUSD
Currencies
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Why tariffs don't matter anymore for the market?
The market has already baked in a 10% average tariff rate
market overview
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Fxstreet
EU prepared to accept a flat 10% US tariff under clear conditions
Handelsblatt, a German newspaper, reported on Monday that the European Commission is prepared to accept a flat-rate United States (US) tariff of 10% under clear conditions.
Europe
EURUSD
UnitedStates
TradeWar
Eurozone
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