Pound Sterling (GBP) is firmer on the day but has struggled to keep up with its core G10 peers over the week, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Euro (EUR) tested the upper 1.08s Monday and traded to a three-year high above 1.14 earlier. It is notable that the EUR surge is happening against a backdrop of widening EZ/US spreads which would ordinarily be a negative factor for the EUR, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is getting pulled along with the broader sell-off in the USD and is notching up another decent weekly gain—its fourth on the trot and the largest since late 2022.
While deeply oversold, further USD weakness is not ruled out; next support level is at 142.50. In the longer run, renewed momentum suggests USD is likely to continue to decline; mid-term support levels are at 142.50 and 139.55, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Further NZD strength is not ruled out, but it may not be able to maintain a foothold above 0.5785. In the longer run, upward momentum has increased, but NZD must first close above 0.5785 before a move to 0.5855 can be expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to strengthen further, but the major resistance at 0.6290 still seems to be out of reach. In the longer run, for the time being, AUD is expected to trade in a 0.6000/0.6290 range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The euro surged to multi-year highs against the dollar as markets reversed optimism from the tariff pause and grew increasingly wary of political and institutional risks in the US.
Impulsive momentum suggests further GBP strength; it remains to be seen if 1.3100 is within reach today. In the longer run, outlook for GBP has shifted to positive; the two technical levels to watch are 1.3210 and 1.3290, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
A mad week for markets is ending with heavy losses for the dollar. The FX scorecard is speaking volumes; in G10, only the illiquid Norwegian krone is flat against the dollar since last Friday.
After closing the third consecutive day in positive territory on Wednesday, GBP/USD preserves its bullish momentum and rises about 1% on the day at around 1.3100.
A break above 1.1275 could trigger further rally; the levels to monitor are 1.1350 and 1.1400. In the longer run, Euro (EUR) is likely to rally further; the levels to monitor are 1.1400 and 1.1450, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The Euro (USD) remains a key recipient of US Dollar (USD) outflows, and is currently trading around 1.125 after major overnight swings that saw it trade as high as 1.138.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, continues its decline for the second consecutive session, hovering around 100.40 during Friday’s Asian trading hours.
The USD/CAD pair remains weak near 1.3965 during the early European session on Friday. The Greenback edges lower against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) amid persistent concerns over the global and US economies.
The AUD/JPY pair extended its downside during Thursday’s session, retreating toward the 90.00 area as bearish sentiment continues to weigh on the pair. Price action is unfolding within a range defined by 88.914 and 91.110, with sellers maintaining control as the session heads into Asia.
The NZD/USD pair extended its upside momentum during Thursday’s session, climbing toward the 0.5700 area after posting notable intraday gains. The pair remains comfortably positioned within its daily range of 0.56282 to 0.57656, reflecting growing bullish sentiment in the short term.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near the 101 area in Thursday’s session, falling further after failing to hold recovery momentum from earlier in the week. The move comes as new tariff measures confirmed by the White House send the effective rate on Chinese imports to a staggering 145%.
The EUR/USD pair extended its rally on Thursday’s session after the European close, pushing toward the 1.1200 area and posting one of its strongest daily gains in recent months.
So the US paused reciprocal tariff action for 90 days on non-retaliating countries but maintained a base line 10% tariff just hours after imposing aggressive levies on its major trading partners. China gets whacked with 125% tariffs though, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
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