The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed—and a relative, if minor, underperformer versus many of its peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
Welcome to Liberation Day. Tariffs are front and center for markets ahead of this afternoon’s announcement from the White House, due around 4pm from the Rose Garden, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, starts to turn red and dips below 104.00 at the time of writing on Wednesday, while equities sell off and bond yields drop. The Greenback
S&P 500 has so far defended the low of last down leg near 5500pts, which is also an ascending trend line connecting troughs of April 2024/August 2024, Societe Generale's FX analysts report.
US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range between 149.05 and 150.20 vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, USD appears to have moved into a 148.40/151.00 consolidation range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday that trade fragmentation is structurally harmful for economic growth and inflation, per Reuters.
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could continue to rebound but any advance is likely part of a 0.5670/0.5725 range. In the longer run, if NZD breaks above 0.5725, it would mean that the weakness has stabilised, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Bloomberg with the report saying that several branches of China’s top economic planning agency have been instructed in recent weeks to hold off on registration and approval for firms that are looking to invest in the US
Despite ‘Liberation Day’ announcements, we expect uncertainty to remain high over the coming months. Heightened trade policy uncertainty could potentially lower global GDP by c.1.0-1.5%. Most of this drop would reflect a decline in US output and that of other major economies.
As we expected, Norges Bank left the policy rate unchanged last week. After all, the interest rate path from December did not necessarily imply an interest rate cut in March.
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to trade in a 0.6250/0.6300 range vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, increase in momentum indicates AUD could continue to decline, but it is too early to determine if it can reach 0.6185, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The UK’s goods exports to the US are worth just below 2% of GDP compared to 3% for the eurozone. It is no massive difference, but the EU has been much more in the focus of Trump’s confrontational foreign approach, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.
USD/JPY remains caught in a 2-way trade between safe haven demand and JPY being directly hit by reciprocal tariffs. Pair was last at 149.60, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
The market reaction to today’s 'liberation day' will depend on the size of tariffs, geographical/sectorial distribution, and openness to negotiation. The announcement is due at 4PM ET/10PM CET, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.
US Dollar (USD) held steady as markets await reciprocal tariff announcement on 2 Apr (4pm ET/4am SGT Thurs morning). There are reports to suggest that Trump’s team is still in the midst of finalising tariffs, with options ranging from reciprocal to tiered to universal tariffs.
Gold price (XAU/USD) stabilizes above $3,120 at the time of writing on Wednesday with still the fresh all-time nearby, at $3,149. The Gold rush rally stalled ahead of United States (US) President Donald Trump officially announcing the reciprocal tariff
Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to trade in a sideways range of 1.2885/1.2945 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, expected to be between 1.2850 and 1.3050, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
The uncertainty that Trump's policy brings with it, through his many U-turns, his erratic statements and his cancellation of long-standing agreements and treaties.
The AUD/USD pair attracts some follow-through buyers for the second consecutive day and recovers further from a nearly four-week low, around the 0.6220-0.6215 area touched on Monday.
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