UBS forecasts gold to $3,500/oz

UBS believes the sharp market reaction to the latest Middle East crisis is overdone, arguing that the geopolitical risk premium is inflated relative to the actual threat to global oil supply. The bank notes that Iran accounts for just 1.6% of global output.

Unlike past conflicts that triggered genuine supply shocks, UBS sees the current episode as unlikely to have lasting market impact. It advises investors to buy on dips, viewing any pullback as a buying opportunity rather than the start of a sustained downturn.

The bank maintains a bullish outlook on global equities, particularly in sectors such as defense and technology,

• sees gold rising to $3,500/oz by end-2025 as demand climbs for both strategic and inflation-hedging assets.

Bottom line: UBS sees the geopolitical fear as excessive and expects markets to remain underpinned by supportive policy, resilient wages, and AI-led productivity gains.