Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 17 Jun: US deciding on joining fight against Iran.

• Israeli media says the US could join the war against Iran tonight
• US stock markets struggle on Iran angst. S&P 500 down 0.8%
• Will we see oil above $100 again?
• Trump national security meeting ends after over an hour
• BofA: June FOMC unlikely to reverse USD weakness, even If dot plot turns hawkish
• Goldman Sachs: EUR/USD rally echoes 2017, but this time it's about the dollar
• Oil finishes more than $3 higher as the market senses an escalation in Iran
• Macron: The biggest error would be to try and change regime in Iran via military means
• Bank of Canada summary of discussions: Underlying inflation pressure could continue
• Netanyahu believes the US will likely enter the war within days
• Trump: We know where the "Supreme Leader" is hiding
• Trump: We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran
• Atlanta Fed Q2 GDPNow +3.5% vs 3.8% prior
• Bitcoin threatens an outside day after a 4% drop
• ECB's Villeroy: We need deeper, more liquid, more integrated financial markets in Europe
• Oil and gold send conflicting signals on Iran war angst. US dollar climbs
• Germany's Merz expects a deal with US in tariff dispute before the summer is over
• US business inventories for April 0.0% versus 0.0% estimate
• US June NAHB housing market index 32 vs 36 expected
• US May industrial production -0.2% vs +0.1% expected
• US import prices for May 0.0% versus -0.2% estimated
• US May retail sales -0.9% vs -0.7% expected
• The USD is mostly higher to start the day ahead of retail sales today and the Fed tomorrow
• Forexlive European FX news wrap: BoJ delivers on expectations, Israel-Iran attacks go on

The USD moved higher during the U.S. session as concerns over potential U.S. involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict intensified. President Trump met with his national security team, while Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu suggested that U.S. military engagement could begin within days. The heightened geopolitical risk helped lift crude oil prices, with WTI crude settling up $3 at $73.27, its highest closing level since late January.

Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury yields fell, reflecting a flight to safety in the bond market. The 10-year yield dropped 7 basis points to 4.385%, while the 30-year yield pulled back from 5.00% to 4.88%. Despite the geopolitical tension, gold did not respond in typical safe-haven fashion, trading nearly unchanged around $3,383. Bitcoin, on the other hand, faced renewed pressure, falling as low as $103,388, down from last week’s peak near $109,356.

On the data front, U.S. retail sales came in weaker than expected, dropping -0.9% vs. -0.7% forecast. Core sales excluding autos also disappointed at -0.3% vs. +0.1% expected. However, the control group—which feeds directly into GDP calculations—surprised to the upside with a +0.4% gain, beating the +0.3% estimate.

Additional economic releases were mixed. Industrial production and capacity utilization both came in stronger than forecast, while the NAHB housing market index also improved modestly. Business inventories were in line with expectations, rounding out a day of mixed economic signals amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.

Tomorrow the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, with expectations of no change in policy. The question will be how far does a Fed statement then the Fed chair go toward the potential for a interest rate cuts sooner rather than later they keep the distance between a cut more towards September/October with the potential for another before year end?. That interest rate decision will take place at 2 PM ET. The Fed chairs press conference will begin at 2:30 PM ET.

Also of note is that the Federal Reserve is expected to release its economic forecasts for inflation, employment, and GDP as well as dot plot outlining the potential fed funds rate at the end of the year and subsequent years.

Technically, the EURUSD is trading right around its 200-hour moving average at 1.14844 heading into the close. The price did extend below that moving average, but momentum has not been running away to the downside.

The GBPUSD was the biggest mover of the day, falling 1.11% as the U.S. dollar strengthened. The decline pushed the pair below both its 100- and 200-hour moving averages, as well as the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 4-hour chart, currently at 1.3531 and 1.3429, respectively.

The sharp drop sent the pair down to test the swing low from three weeks ago near 1.3411, where it found modest support and bounced slightly into the close. The breakdown through these key technical levels signals a shift in momentum and puts sellers more firmly in control heading into the next trading day.

The AUDUSD is closing near it's low for the day and looks to test the rising 200 bar MA on the 4-hour chart at 0.64599. That will be a key barometer technically in the new day.