New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) survey of economists, the latest Consensus Forecasts.

Some of the key items from the report, very briefly summarised::

  • annual average growth in GDP is forecast to contract by 1.1 percent in the year to March 2025
  • picking up to 1.9 percent in the following year
  • lower interest rates are expected to support a pick-up in growth
  • soft labour market is driving continued caution amongst households
  • many households will face further relief in the form of reduced mortgage repayments. This is expected to support a continued recovery in discretionary spending over the coming years.
  • inflation is expected to become anchored around the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) inflation target mid-point of 2 percent over the coming years

NZIER NZ dollar outlook:

nzd forecast nzier 16 June 2025 2
Source: Forex Live