Oil market factoring in a higher risk premium
ING says the oil market is now factoring in a higher risk premium due to rising geopolitical tensions following Israel’s strike on Iran.
- uncertainty has increased significantly
- Iran produces around 3.3 million barrels of crude per day and exports around 1.7 million
- if tensions escalate, it’s not hard to imagine a disruption in Iranian oil flows
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I suspect the Strait of Hormuz might be a danger zone for a while now too, another tailwind for oil.
Brent update:

ps.
- New explosions and air-defense activity reported over the Iranian capital of Tehran
- another wave of strikes against the city by Israel
Earlier:
- Explosions heard in Tehran - reports are sketchy
- Israel says has launched a pre-emptive attack against Iran
We got a 10 minute or so warning:
Then: