ING says the oil market is now factoring in a higher risk premium due to rising geopolitical tensions following Israel’s strike on Iran.

  • uncertainty has increased significantly
  • Iran produces around 3.3 million barrels of crude per day and exports around 1.7 million
  • if tensions escalate, it’s not hard to imagine a disruption in Iranian oil flows

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I suspect the Strait of Hormuz might be a danger zone for a while now too, another tailwind for oil.

Brent update:

brent iran exports 13 June 2025 2

ps.

  • New explosions and air-defense activity reported over the Iranian capital of Tehran
  • another wave of strikes against the city by Israel

Earlier:

Iran says Israel and America will pay a very heavy price

Source: Forex Live