The first market-moving development overnight came via Truth Social, where former U.S. President Donald Trump warned: “Iran should have signed the ‘deal’ I told them to sign… IRAN CANNOT HAVE A NUCLEAR WEAPON… Everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran!”

  • The post triggered a brief bout of risk aversion:

    • WTI crude rose from around $71 to $72.15

    • S&P 500 futures (ES Jun) slipped from 6031 to ~6021

    • Gold edged higher

A White House official told CNN the social media post reflected the urgency of the situation and the administration’s desire to push Iran back to the negotiating table as hostilities with Israel escalate.

Sentiment soured further as news broke that Trump would leave the G7 summit early to return to Washington, with the White House saying he needed to “attend to many important matters.” Risk assets extended losses on headlines that Trump had also instructed the National Security Council (NSC) to prepare in the White House Situation Room for h

Markets later retraced some of the moves after a U.S. official said there is no intention to launch offensive operations against Iran, and reports surfaced that Trump was, in fact, staying for the G7 dinner.

As the session progressed, unconfirmed reports emerged of three ships on fire in the Gulf of Oman, near the Strait of Hormuz. That sent Brent crude sharply higher, rising toward $75/bbl.

As I post major FX is little net changed overall. Excepot for the yen, which has weakened. USD/JPY has traded back above 145.00.

The Bank of Japan Statement is expected soon. The Bank is expected to leae rates unchanged but may give a hint abiout a slower taper plan to come.

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Brent update, I marked that 'three ships on fire' news move with an arrow.

brent wrap 17 June 2025 2
Source: Forex Live